Belarus has moved from uneasy neutrality to being a co-belligerent. In 2022 Russian forces invaded Ukraine from its territory. It now hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons and positions for the Oreshnik missile. Belarusian and Russian forces train together close to Poland and Lithuania.
On the EU’s eastern border, Minsk has turned hybrid pressure into a habit by flying and pushing migrants to the fence since 2021, and over 12,000 attempts to cross into Latvia in 2025 alone. Belarusian military helicopters have crossed into Polish airspace, and Russian drones have done the same via Belarus. Smuggling balloons closed Vilnius airport again and again in late 2025. Each episode is cheap for Minsk and costly for its neighbours, and leaves the regime room to deny or to bargain.
The country’s own weak points matter as well. Belarus has become an inherent part of Russia’s military planning schemes. Oil refineries now supply almost exclusively the Russian market. A nuclear power plant 50 km from Vilnius is both a leverage and a liability, given the legacy of Chornobyl. Whatever happens to the regime in Minsk will shape security across the whole eastern flank.
Drag to move · double-click or Ctrl + scroll to zoom
All 56 sites
Compiled by Cognifare from open sources, named in each site’s note. Base map: Natural Earth; regional and municipal boundaries, main rivers and some site positions © OpenStreetMap contributors. Positions marked as approximate are indicative only.
We have created a series of maps of Belarus and Russia’s northwestern regions. We call them Pressure Points as they represent a showcase of military installations, energy facilities, economic powerhouses and environmental vulnerabilities along northeastern frontiers of EU & NATO countries. All used data come from open sources.